Summary
- Make sure you’re prepared for North Texas Hail Season!
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Fed leaves rates untouched.
- Worldwide economies and markets continued to move into more defensive positions ahead of the April 2nd tariffs rollout. Major stock indices continued to fall.
- The resulting economic uncertainty puts a damper on home buying and selling activity in March.
- Consumers remain in a decent place, but economic sentiment and expectations continue to fall.
- Mortgage rates are predicted to remain in the 6% range through 2025 and potentially through 2026 as well.
- The Texas economy is in good shape but carries a significant risk of impact from the new trade policies.
- The South Denton housing market picks up the pace in March (as is typical) but is still quite a bit slower than last year at this time.
- The South Denton County market is still slightly favoring sellers but continues to shift toward a more balanced market.
What do storms, Easter eggs, and economic volatility have in Common?
April. The answer is April, my friends. This month is a big one. The bulk of the Trump administration’s new tariffs will come into effect on April 2, and the entire world is watching to see what will happen. How that plays out over this month is going to impact every sector of the economy, and especially housing. While the Texas economy is still showing some strength, it is at risk of being impacted more than other states by the new trade policies.
Before we get started, I want to say thank you for visiting my little corner of the internet! I am a native Texan, husband, dad, and former tech company CoFounder & CTO turned Real Estate Agent. I live and work in the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex and am passionate about resourcing my clients well (click here to hear my story). I hope you find this post and the rest of the resources on my website useful, and I would love to hear from you! Shoot me a text or email and say hey or get more hyperlocal insights, analysis, and news about the real estate market YOU are living in. Now, let’s get to it.
Local Happenings & Community Buzz
Upcoming good times in the DFW metroplex.
- The Argyle Farmer’s Market kicks off in April! 👩🌾
- Get your kids out to an Easter egg hunt in Argyle, Flower Mound, or Denton.
- Catch some live music 🎶 Fridays at Lakeside in Flower Mound or at Marty B’s.
- …or feast your ears at the Dallas Country, Blues & Red Dirt Festival.
- The 33rd Annual Spring Wine Trail is this month, for all you amateur sommeliers. 🍷
North Texas Hail Season Prep Guide
It’s that time of year again, beautiful (and sometimes scary) storms that often bring the roofing industry’s favorite weather event—hail! Here are some tips to help prepare BEFORE ice starts falling from the sky.
- Pay attention to the weather. Check it at least every other day. Local weather stations are typically better at predicting hail than the average weather app. Ensure you won’t be physically caught outside without cover.
- Secure Outdoor Items. Buy trampoline stakes off of Amazon, and find other ways to secure or stow things like outdoor furniture and toys. No one wants their neighbor’s trampoline flying over the fence (yes, it happens).
- Clean out your garage so there is space to park your car on short notice. If you don’t have covered parking, then consider purchasing a hail protector cover for your car.
- If you are caught in a storm while driving, immediately try to pull over into a covered space like a gas station. Don’t try to outrun it (gentlemen)!
- If hail does hit your home, get a reputable roofing company to come do a free inspection as soon as you can. Reach out if you’d like some recommendations.
Headlines & Highlights
Let’s take a look at what is happening out there in the world that could have an impact on your local real estate market.
- The biggest headline is still…tariffs. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” is scheduled for April 2. Markets are experiencing continued volatility in the face of the uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of the sweeping tariff activity and dealmaking.
- Tariffs would have an outsized impact on Texas‘ economy.
- Stagflation fears increase.
- Small businesses and consumers both become more pessimistic about the economy.
- Mortgage rates fall slightly, and Wells Fargo expects them to remain above 6% through 2026.
- Zillow downgrades their 2025 home price forecast.
- American home builder CEO expects the housing market to be “weaker for longer.”
- $800 million wellness resort and waterpark planned for Dallas.
Market Snapshot: The Big Picture
Inflation & The Fed
The Fed says inflation “remains somewhat elevated” and leaves rates untouched again. Says economic expansion and the labor market are still solid, but acknowledges that uncertainty is increasing around the broader economic outlook.
- The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Metric, PCE, holds steady at 2.5% in February.
- Consumer Price Index falls 0.2% to 2.8% in February.
- 10-Year Treasury Yields creep upward to 4.38%.
The Consumer
Overall consumer financial well-being begins to slip but remains OK for now. All data below is for February.
- Unemployment remains low at 4.1%
- Personal savings rate is up to 4.6% but remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
- Consumer Sentiment continues to fall to 64.7, with inflation expectations rising again to 4.3%, a 12-month high.
Mortgage Rates
Rates are falling slowly but are predicted to stay in the 6’s at least through 2025. Rates for the week ending Mar 27:
- 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 6.65% (down from 6.76% in February)
- 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 5.89% (down from 6.94% in February)
- Predictions for 2025 and beyond
- Fannie Mae: 30-year will drop to 6.50% at end of year, 6.30% in 2026
- Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.50% at end of year, 6.40% in 2026
- National Association of Realtors: Near 6% at end of year
- Realtor.com: 6.2% at end of year
- National Association of Home Builders: 6.53% at end of year, 6.11% in 2026
- Wells Fargo: above 6% through 2026
Housing
The National Housing Affordability Index was stable at 100.7 in January, meaning that a family with the median income could just barely qualify for a loan on a median-priced house.
- Homeownership increased slightly in Q4.
- Broader housing activity trends reversed in January. New and existing home sales, as well as new construction starts, all fall in January.
- In February, existing home sale prices increase to $398,400, but new construction prices fall to $414,500.
- Inventory of both new homes for sale and existing home inventory climbs in February.
- Months supply of new (8.9) and existing (3.5) homes both stay flat.
- Housing insecurity ticked up slightly in Q4 as more renters and homeowners fell behind on payments.
Texas
Texas (the 8th largest economy in the world) continues to show its strength. The Texas housing market is largely following typical seasonal patterns and continues to shift toward a more balanced market between buyers and sellers.
- Home sales activity in Texas follows a seasonal uptick in February, but with less gusto than previous years.
- February Median Sales Price bumps up to $330,000, and Months of Inventory bounced up to 4.54. Active listings climb to 124,925 following a typical seasonal patterns.
- New Single Family Home permits hold steady in February and remain largely flat year over year.
- February New Listings climbed to 36,776, which is about 4% higher than last year.
- Texas continues to experience a strong economy and grew faster than the nation in Q4 2024.
- The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.6% in 2025, reflecting a resilient labor market.
- The Texas economy, job growth, and income growth are all expected to outpace the United States’ in 2025.
Market Snapshot: South Denton County (76226, 75077, 75022, 75028)
As is typical for March, home buying and selling activity picked up across the board but was noticeably cooler than the previous year at this time (likely due to the current economic uncertainty). The market is still slightly favoring sellers but continues to shift toward a more balanced position.
The numbers for March*
| Metric | Value | % Change From Previous Month | % Change From Previous Year |
| Sales Price | $560,000 | ⇧ 4.7% | ⇩ 4.2% |
| Days on Market | 28 | ⇩ 50% | ⇧ 40% |
| Months Supply | 3.5 | ⇧ 20% | ⇧ 35% |
| % of Original Price | 96.6% | ⇧ 0.6% | ⇩ 0.7% |
| Homes for Sale | 697 | ⇧ 18% | ⇧ 33% |
| New Listings | 352 | ⇧ 36% | ⇩ 4.3% |
| Pending Sales | 161 | ⇧ 6.6% | ⇩ 34% |
| Closed Sales | 178 | ⇧ 40% | ⇩ 20% |
| Shows to Pending | 7.0 | ⇩ 33% | ⇩ 39% |
| Shows per Listing | 6.0 | ⇧ 13% | ⇩ 15% |
*All data is from NTREIS. Median used for all calculations unless specified otherwise. I live, work, and play in South Denton County. The following insights are drawn from data from ONLY the above zip codes. What does that mean for you? Well, if you live in one of those zip codes, then this information will be much more precise and relevant than using general, county-level data.
What Does it All Mean?
For Sellers. The summer selling season historically brings a 5-15% bump in prices for South Denton County, which is significant. If you’ve got the luxury of choosing when you want to list your home, then now is the time. I personally think the tariff drama will blow over without too much long-term negative economic impact and will likely be settled by this summer. If it goes the way I think it will (lots of folks coming to the table, new deals being struck, and businesses then continuing as usual), then markets should all experience a broad bounce, consumer sentiment will rebound, and we’ll see a lot more buyers entering the market, which could create more favorable conditions for sellers. However, no one has a crystal ball, and the risk on the other side is that a legitimate trade war is triggered and we potentially enter a recession or a period of stagflation…which could do some damage to the housing market. In either case, I’m still thinking that if you’re considering selling within the next 12 months, now is the time to get the ball rolling. As always, I’m here if you want to talk about it or want a detailed report on your home’s current value.
For Buyers. With new tariffs coming into effect on April 2nd, it will be important to keep a close eye on how the trade policies evolve. If the uncertainty clears in the following couple of months, I’d recommend being prepared to put offers on a home before the market seriously reacts one way or the other since prices are currently lower than they were last year. That means getting pre-approved and already having been touring homes with a trusted agent. On the other hand, if the tariffs stick around for longer, then that could lead to significant increases in home prices, as building materials could be hit hard. Which is another vote to get everything in order and start looking now.
At the end of the day, deciding to sell your house and/or buy a new one is a very personal decision, and one that should weigh many other factors besides the market conditions. If you want to talk through it with an expert, I’d love to be a free resource to you. I promise to prioritize YOUR interests and comfort and won’t pressure you. Losing your business is worth it to me if I gain your trust. So give me a call/text/email, and don’t forget to check out my free, beautiful Ultimate Home Seller & Buyer Guides!
Until next time,
