Local Happenings & Community Buzz

Upcoming good times in the DFW metroplex.

• July 5 & 26: Story Walk at the Argyle Public Library. Have fun engaging your little’s bodies and minds at the same time!
• For all you [crazy] people who like to run marathons in the TX heat, here are a couple local, fun ones: Shark Week (July 13) and DFW Burning Soles Trail Series Race 6 (July 30)
• Thursdays, July 10 – August 14: Sounds of Summer Music Series at The Shops at Highland Village.
• Get the girls together for Paint ‘n Sip Ladies Night on July 26.

Stay Cool, My Friends. Find Water. 🏊‍♀️

I wanted to do a follow-up from last month and round up the best water-based events, attractions, and activities in DFW to help you stay cool this summer. I mean, look at all these. There’s really no reason to be dry.

1. Indoor Water Parks: Great Wolf Lodge (Grapevine), Epic Waters (Grand Prairie), The Cove at the Lakefront (Little Elm). Or surf indoors.
2. Outdoor Water Parks: Six Flags Hurricane Harbor (Arlington), Hawaiian Waters (The Colony), Bahama Beach (Dallas), Hawaiian Falls (Roanoke).
3. City Water Parks: Frisco Water Park, Denton Water Works, Dove Waterpark Grapevine, and Sun Valley Aquatic Center Lewisville.
4. And splashpads for the littles: Highland Village, Flower Mound (Heritage), Flower Mound (Canyon Falls), and Lewisville.
5. If you prefer less excitement and more luxury, book day access to one of Dallas’ premier luxury resort hotel’s amenities.
6. Hit Grapevine or Lewisville Lake. Picnic, swim, rent a boat if you don’t have one, or fish!
7. Or you can stay home and rent a water balloon battle blowup, a huge water slide (my family does this every year; it’s so much fun with all the kiddos), get real crazy with a full water gun & Nerf battle experience, or make your trampoline a water park.

Headlines & Highlights

Let’s take a look at what is happening out there in the world that could have an impact on your local real estate market.

• The “Zillow Ban” goes into effect. Sellers, be careful with pocket listings/private marketing! Pre-marketing your home privately through your broker alone and withholding it from public visibility now results in the listing never being shown on Zillow, even after you go public, unless you switch brokers.
• Grapevine and Fort Worth were both designated a Tourism Friendly Texas Certified Community.

Market Snapshot: The Big Picture

Inflation & The Fed

The Fed holds their line on inflation, saying it “remains somewhat elevated,” and holds rates steady yet again. Says economic expansion and the labor market are still solid. 1-2 rate cuts are still projected by the end of the year, according to the Fed’s “Dot Plot.”

• The Fed’s favorite inflation metric, PCE, rises 0.1% to 2.3% in May.
• The Consumer Price Index also rises 0.1% to 2.4% in May.
• 10-Year Treasury Yields fall to 4.24%.

The Consumer

Consumer financial well-being appears to be stabilizing in the wake of tariffs and economic uncertainty from the first half of the year, although it remains somewhat distressed. Deloitte’s financial well-being index recovers slightly. However, the labor market is still showing strength. Consumers are saving a bit more, delaying purchases, and remain pessimistic, although this might be bottoming out. Data below is for June unless otherwise noted.

• Mortgage delinquencies rise in May.
• Unemployment remains low at 4.1%.
• Wage growth continues to outpace inflation at 3.7% from last year.
• Personal savings rose to 4.5% in April but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
• Consumer Sentiment bounced out of its freefall to 60.7, up from 52.2 in May, with inflation expectations remaining very high at 6.6%, the highest reading since 1981 😮.
• Q1 2025 Homeowner equity remains near record highs, largely driven by price increases.
• …and, subsequently, so does household net worth.

Mortgage Rates

Rates fell just a bit in June as the economy settled down after tariffs and general political shenanigans became old news but are predicted to stay in the 6s at least through 2025. Rates for the week ending June 26:

• 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 6.77% (down from 6.89% in May)
• 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 5.89% (down from 6.03% in May)
• Predictions for 2025 and beyond
  • Fannie Mae: 30-year will drop to 6.50% at end of year, 6.30% in 2026
  • Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.50% at end of year, 6.40% in 2026
  • National Association of Realtors: Near 6% at end of year
  • Realtor.com: 6.2% at end of year
  • National Association of Home Builders: 6.53% at end of year, 6.11% in 2026
  • Wells Fargo: above 6% through 2026

Housing

The National Housing Affordability Index ticked down to 101.0 in April, meaning that a family with the median income had just slightly more than enough income to qualify for a loan on a median-priced house. A recent report from Harvard shows something we all already knew—home ownership is becoming less and less attainable in the US.

• Homeownership decreased slightly in Q1 2025, continuing the decline that started in 2023.
• Broader housing trends were mixed in April. New home purchases rose while existing home purchases slipped. Construction of new homes fell.
• In May, existing home sale prices continued their climb to $422,800, and new construction followed to a nearly equivalent price of $426,600.
• Inventory of new homes climbed a bit in May, as did existing home inventory.
• Months supply of new (9.8) homes took a big leap up, while months supply of existing (4.6) homes increased more moderately for the month of May.

Texas

Texas (the 8th largest economy in the world) is still going strong 🤠. The Texas housing market is largely following typical seasonal patterns, but inventory continues to build, pushing the market into a critical tipping point, potentially into buyer’s market territory.

• Home sales in Texas climbed in a typical seasonal pattern in May.
• May Median Sales Price stayed flat at $340,000, and Months of Inventory increased to 5.56. Active listings hopped up to 152,383. Inventory is still significantly elevated from previous years and climbing, and we’re moving into a buyer’s market at the state level.
• New Single Family Home permits pulled back in May as economic woes pressure builders.
• The cost of new homes over the last decade has fallen to almost identical prices as existing homes as builders build smaller houses.
• May New Listings fell ever so slightly to 46,664 but are still 11% higher than last year.
• Texas continues to experience a strong economy. The Lone Star State also led the nation again in job creation over the last 12 months!
• Texas also sets new records for Total Jobs, Texans Working, and Total Labor Force…again.
• The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5% in 2025, reflecting a resilient labor market.
• The Lone Star State tops multiple rankings for best state for business. See here and here.
• …and here!
• The Texas economy, job growth, and income growth are all expected to outpace the United States’ in 2025.

Market Snapshot: Your Local Market

Inventory for Denton County continues to chart new record highs. More people are listing their homes than this time last year, and at the same time there are fewer buyers making offers than last year. Despite the subdued activity, we are still not in a full-on buyer’s market yet. Home prices are still putting up a good fight and holding steady near the last few year highs. With 5.2 months of inventory out there, we’re in a balanced market, although if the trends we’ve been seeing hold, that could tip into a buyer’s market as early as next month. Continue reading for buyer/seller-specific thoughts and advice!

The numbers for June*