Local Happenings & Community Buzz

Upcoming good times in the DFW metroplex.

• June 14: Celebrate Highland Village will be a full day with a fishing derby, 5k, vendors, music, food, Kid Zone and fireworks!
• Now – Sep 1: DoubleTree Splash Pad is open for all you with littles!
• June 14: Journey Tribute Band
• July 3-4: Food, fun, activities, parades, car shows, live entertainment, fireworks, and more! Take your pick from Flower Mound, Double Oak, Roanoke, and Trophy Club!

🥵 Texas Summer Survival Guide 🏖️

I’m a native Texan, y’all. I grew up in the woods and on the lake. But can I be honest for a sec? Either I’m starting to feel my age or Texas summers are meaner than they used to be…probably both. Especially now that I have my own kids and I don’t live in the sweet shade of the East Texas pine forests, I’ve had to get creative to enjoy the summers. Here are some tips and ideas for you and your family!

1. Find water. Whether this is a lake for the weekend, the beach for a week, a backyard pool, or a neighborhood splash pad, lock in something you can escape to as frequently as possible. It’s pricier, but Lifetime Fitness has some great indoor pools that your kids can enjoy with no sunblock, any time!
2. Find shade. It breaks my heart, but the first thing North Texas builders do when they develop a new neighborhood is level all the trees. Plant trees. Enjoy your patio. Buy a cheap sun sail shade from Amazon. Get your outside time in before 9am or after 7:30pm.
3. Get some big fans. They go a long way and help keep pesky bugs at bay.
4. Create summertime traditions. Homemade popsicles, berry picking and pie making, monthly cookouts with friends, keep a cold pitcher of sweet tea in the fridge and some watermelon slices, midday movies on the weekends, evening swims or bike rides, or vacations to cooler places.
5. Lean into your indoor interests and activities. Reading, decluttering & cleaning, watching a good show, or learning a new hobby. I learned how to crochet a couple of years ago and enjoy making little toys for my kids every now and then.

Headlines & Highlights

Let’s take a look at what is happening out there in the world that could have an impact on your local real estate market.

• Tariffs came, and then they went.
• NAR Chief Economist believes that despite headwinds, existing home sales will pick up in the 2nd half of the year. Bankrate’s reporting isn’t quite as optimistic.
• Inventory is increasing; we’re still in a slight seller’s market, but first-time buyers are reemerging.
• Texans are more than twice as likely as nationwide buyers to purchase a new home.

Market Snapshot: The Big Picture

Inflation & The Fed

The Fed says inflation “remains somewhat elevated” and leaves rates untouched again. Says economic expansion and the labor market are still solid. President Trump puts pressure on the Fed to lower rates, but the next projected rate cut is getting pushed out further in the year as the labor market shows decent numbers.

• The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Metric, PCE, improved and fell to 2.1% in April.
• Consumer Price Index also fell 0.1% to 2.3% in April.
• 10-Year Treasury Yields increased slightly to 4.41%.

The Consumer

Consumer financial well-being took a hit as we get the first month of insights into the impact of the recent flurry of economic and trade policies. Deloitte’s financial well-being index had its strongest monthly drop since 2023. However, the labor market is still showing strength. Data is for May unless otherwise noted.

• Unemployment remains low at 4.2%.
• Wage growth continues to outpace inflation at 3.9% from last year.
• Personal savings rose to 4.9% in April but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
• Consumer Sentiment continued its steep descent to 52.2, with inflation expectations rising sharply again to 6.5%, the highest reading since 1981 😮.
• Q4 2024 Homeowner equity remains near record highs, largely driven by price increases.
• …and, subsequently, so does household net worth for last quarter.

Mortgage Rates

Rates remained slightly elevated in May, likely due to the flurry of tariff-driven economic uncertainty, and are predicted to stay in the 6s at least through 2025. Rates for the week ending May 29:

• 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 6.89% (up from 6.81% in March)
• 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 6.03% (up from 5.94% in March)
• Predictions for 2025 and beyond
  • Fannie Mae: 30-year will drop to 6.50% at end of year, 6.30% in 2026
  • Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.50% at end of year, 6.40% in 2026
  • National Association of Realtors: Near 6% at end of year
  • Realtor.com: 6.2% at end of year
  • National Association of Home Builders: 6.53% at end of year, 6.11% in 2026
  • Wells Fargo: above 6% through 2026

Housing

The National Housing Affordability Index climbed to 103.2 in March, meaning that a family with the median income had more than enough income to qualify for a loan on a median-priced house. Prices are rising, even as inventory rises and sales drop.

• Homeownership decreased slightly in Q1 2025, continuing the decline that started in 2023.
• Broader housing trends show that activity slowed in March. Existing home sales and new construction starts fell, while new home purchases rose. Inventory for both new and existing homes rose.
• In April, existing home sale prices increased to $414,000, and new construction followed to a nearly equivalent price of $407,200.
• Inventory of new homes stayed flat, and and existing home inventory climbed in April.
• Months supply of new (8.1) homes fell a bit, while months supply of existing (4.4) homes increased again.

Texas

Texas (the 8th largest economy in the world) is still going strong 🤠. The Texas housing market is largely following typical seasonal patterns, but inventory is building as it outpaces buyer demand. However, Texas also stands to be one of the hardest-hit states if the new tariffs stick around.

• Home sales in Texas climbed in a typical seasonal pattern in April but are still slightly lagging the prior few years.
• April Median Sales Price stayed flat at $339,000, and Months of Inventory increased to 5.21. Active listings—typically flat this time of year—climbed to 142,763. Inventory is still significantly elevated from previous years and climbing.
• New Single Family Home permits rose in April as builders push through the tariff noise.
• April New Listings climbed to 47,098.
• Texas continues to experience a strong economy. The Lone Star State also led the nation again in job creation over the last 12 months!
• Texas also sets new records for Total Jobs, Texans Working, and Total Labor Force.
• The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5% in 2025, reflecting a resilient labor market.
• The Lone Star State tops multiple rankings for best state for business. See here and here.
• The Texas economy, job growth, and income growth are all expected to outpace the United States’ in 2025.

Market Snapshot: Your Local Market

Prices and days on market both dipped a bit from April. More new listings entered the market than is normal for this time of year. Denton County currently has a record number of homes on the market for as far back as the MLS Trends has data for (2003), beating its previous month record. Pending Sales was mostly flat and Shows to Pending remains low. All together, we’re seeing more people choosing or being forced to sell their home, but we’re not seeing more buyers entering the market. This is causing the market to shift into a balanced position between sellers and buyers and reflects the current economic uncertainty and trade/tariff activity of the last few months.

The numbers for May*