Summary
- Don’t forget to set your clocks forward on Sunday, March 9th!
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated and the Fed leaves rates untouched.
- A continued flurry of policy activity from the White House continues to rock markets. Investors are fleeing risk assets for safer ones. Major indices all fall.
- Consumers remain in a good place but are becoming more pessimistic about the economy.
- Mortgage rates are predicted to remain in the 6% range through 2025.
- The Texas economy is in good shape.
- Home prices remain largely unchanged from last year in South Denton County, but are sitting for longer on the market as buyer activity falls and inventory grows.
- The South Denton County market is still favoring sellers.
Wear Green and Prepare to be Grumpy for a Week😴
Hey Friends! More economic volatility is swirling as new policies come out of the White House and the markets struggle to digest it. The consumer and Texas are still in a good position, but cracks are starting to form—I’d suggest holding onto your seat over the next couple months and tuning out the noise until we’re through all these big, initial changes. The good news is that it’s still a good time to live in DFW!
Before we get started, I want to say thank you for visiting my little corner of the internet! I am a native Texan, husband, dad, and former tech company CoFounder & CTO turned Real Estate Agent. I live and work in the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex and am passionate about resourcing my clients well (click here to hear my story). I hope you find this post and the rest of the resources on my website useful, and I would love to hear from you! Shoot me a text or email and say hey or get more hyperlocal insights, analysis, and news about the real estate market YOU are living in. Now, let’s get to it.
Local Happenings & Community Buzz
Upcoming good times in the DFW metroplex.
- Do you love food? I do. Get ready for FoodieLand in March! 🍲
- Join The Great Argyle Cleanup and Keep Argyle Beautiful!
- March Golden Ager Bingo Luncheon in Argyle.
- Put your engineering skills to the test in a Sink or Sail Regatta.
- …or flex your tastebuds at an Exclusive Jameson Cocktail Dinner.
- …or feast your ears at the Dallas Country, Blues & Red Dirt Festival.
Spring Break Staycation Ideas
If you don’t have big Spring Break plans this year I’ve got you covered with some fun ideas for staying local 🏠
- Enjoy the nice weather while it’s nice! Hit as many of DFW’s parks and outdoor spaces as you can before it gets too hot. Some of my favorites: The Dallas Arboretum, Arbor Hills Nature Preserve, Cedar Ridge Preserve & White Rock Lake.
- Indulge in luxury. Spend a few days at the Joule or Ritz-Carlton (and some time in their spas, of course), and eat at Reunion Tower, Georgie, Uchi, and St. Martins.
- Wear the kids out between the Ft. Worth Zoo, The Dallas World Aquarium, The Perot Museum, The Dallas Arboretum, and the Ft. Worth Museum of Science and History.
- …or spend a few days at Great Wolf Lodge and don’t worry about planning anything else.
- For a more whimsical undertaking, find a treehouse, cave, or some other crazy place on Airbnb near the metroplex, pack your bags with some good books and board games, and enjoy the one-of-a-kind stay.
Headlines & Highlights
Let’s take a look at what is happening out there in the world that could have an impact on your local real estate market.
- New tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China take effect. Then some automakers are exempted. Then most tariffs on Mexico are delayed. Markets experience whiplash and tumble.
- Recession concerns flare as several indicators point to increased risk of recession.
- Consumers cut spending by most in four years last month.
- Mortgage rates continue to fall.
- Zillow reports that buyers now favor move-in ready homes over fixer-uppers.
- Kalahari Resort potentially coming to Allen.
- Indoor Youth Multisports center opening in Northlake this fall.
- KFC (partially) moving headquarters to Plano.
- New 1,800 Master Planned Community coming to Anna.
Market Snapshot: The Big Picture
Inflation & The Fed
The Fed says inflation “remains somewhat elevated”, and leaves rates untouched. Says economy is generally healthy.
- Fed’s Favorite Inflation Metric, PCE, ticks down to 2.5% in January from 2.6% in December.
- Consumer Price Index: Continues climbing to 3.0% in January, up 0.1% from December.
- 10-Year Treasury Yields fell to ~4.16% but has bounced since.
The Consumer
Overall consumer financial well-being remains in a good spot. All data below is for January.
- Unemployment remains low at 4.0%
- Personal savings rate hops up to 4.6% but remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
- Consumer Sentiment fell to 71.7, with inflation expectations rising again to 3.3%.
Mortgage Rates
Rates continue to fall but are predicted to stay in the 6’s for 2025. Rates for the week ending Feb 27:
- 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 6.76% (down from 6.95% in January)
- 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 5.94% (down from 6.12% in January
- Predictions for 2025 and beyond
- Fannie Mae: 30-year will drop to 6.50% at end of year, 6.30% in 2026
- Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.50% at end of year, 6.40% in 2026
- National Association of Realtors: Near 6% at end of year
- Realtor.com: 6.2% at end of year
- National Association of Home Builders: 6.53% at end of year, 6.11% in 2026
Housing
The National Housing Affordability Index ticked higher to 100.9 in December, meaning that a family with the median income could just barely qualify for a loan on a median-priced house.
- Homeownership increased slightly in Q4.
- New and existing home sales, as well as new construction starts all rose in December.
- In January, existing home sale prices fell to $396,900, but new construction prices jumped significantly to $446,300.
- Inventory of new homes for sale rose, and existing home inventory also ticks higher in January.
- Months supply of new (9) and existing (3.5) homes both increased.
- Housing insecurity ticked up slightly in Q4 as more renters and homeowners fall behind on payments.
Texas
Texas continues to show resilience in key economic areas. The Texas housing market is largely following typical seasonal patterns.
- The increased sales activity we saw at the end of Q4 retreated back to levels similar to the prior year in January.
- January Median Sales Price dropped to $327,970, and Months of Inventory bounced up to 4.38. Active listings also hopped to 120,978 following a typical seasonal turnaround.
- New Single Family Home permits drop slightly in January but remain largely flat year over year.
- January New Listings climbed to 32,934 which is a 10% increase from last year.
- The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.6% in 2025, reflecting a resilient labor market.
- The Texas Economy, Job growth, and income growth are all expected to outpace the United State’s in 2025.
Market Snapshot: South Denton County (76226, 75077, 75022, 75028)
February saw a sizeable growth in inventory as fewer people were out looking at homes. The market is still favoring sellers, but shifted slightly toward a more balanced position.
The numbers for February*
| Metric | Value | % Change From Previous Month | % Change From Previous Year |
| Sales Price | $535,000 | ⇩ .9% | ⇩ 1.8% |
| Days on Market | 56 | ⇧ 12% | ⇧ 7.7% |
| Months Supply | 2.9 | ⇧ 11% | ⇧ 32% |
| % of Original Price | 96% | ⇧ 0.5% | ⇧ 0.2% |
| Homes for Sale | 589 | ⇧ 8% | ⇧ 32% |
| New Listings | 258 | ⇩ 0.3% | ⇩ 1.9% |
| Pending Sales | 151 | ⇧ 7.1% | ⇩ 29% |
| Closed Sales | 127 | ⇩ 14% | ⇩ 26% |
| Shows to Pending | 10.5 | ⇩ 38% | ⇩ 19% |
| Shows per Listing | 5.3 | ⇩ 7% | ⇩ 38% |
*All data is from NTREIS. Median used for all calculations unless specified otherwise. I live, work, and play in South Denton County. The following insights are drawn from data from ONLY the above zip codes. What does that mean for you? Well, if you live in one of those zip codes, then this information will be much more precise and relevant than using general, county-level data.
What Does it All Mean?
For Sellers. Home values are still near record highs. The surge in buyer activity we saw at the end of 2024 has cooled off, and we’re seeing more houses on the market and staying a little longer. Interestingly, we saw in February that buyers are potentially becoming more decisive–needing fewer viewings to make their decision. Demand is still healthy in South Denton County, and the market is still favoring sellers. With the economic whiplash we’re experiencing at the moment it’s tough to predict what will happen to home prices, but in all it is still a good time to sell. However, selling a home is a big, personal decision. Much more goes into it than the current market conditions. I suggest weighing your own desires and needs and tuning out some of the current noise as you think through what is best for you and your family. As always, I’m here if you want to talk about it or want a detailed report on your homes current value.
For Buyers. If you’ve been waiting to buy until mortgage rates fall, then I have bad news…it might be a very long time before we see the 4’s again. Prioritize you/your family’s needs, evaluate your financial state, and make a decision that is best for YOU. Maybe that means waiting until you’re in a stronger financial position. Maybe that means buying that home that is better suited to your needs in this season and refinancing later.
At the end of the day, deciding to sell your house and/or buy a new one is a very personal decision, and one that should weigh many other factors besides the market conditions. If you want to talk through it with an expert, I’d love to be a free resource to you. I promise to prioritize YOUR interests and comfort, and won’t pressure you. Losing your business is worth it to me if I gain your trust. So give me a call/text/email, and don’t forget to check out my free, beautiful Ultimate Home Seller & Buyer Guides!
Until next time,
