Local Happenings & Community Buzz

Upcoming good times in the DFW metroplex.

• Grapevine’s 41st Annual Main Street Fest—3 days of family fun, food, and music!
• Celebrate Flower Mound Library’s 40th Anniversary with an ’80s themed good time. Glowing dance party, retro crafts, and ’80s karaoke. All ages welcome.
• The Arts Festival at Heritage Park will have live music, local vendors, snacks, and you can create your own art!
• Drop off old bikes and plastic bags at Keep Argyle Beautiful’s Bikes & Bags Collection.
• Get your spicy food fix at ZestFest 2025.

Happiest Mother’s Day – One of the Hardest Jobs in the World 💪

My lovely wife and I have 2 little girls. After spending chunks of time here and there as the primary caretaker and working some extremely high-stress/responsibility jobs in the marketplace, I can confidently say what half of the world already knows—being a mom is one of the hardest jobs in the world. And definitely the worst paying. Here’s to all of you who have sacrificed your hearts, dreams, bodies, time, & opportunities. To those who wear every hat and somehow still juggle everything—doctors/therapists/teachers/coaches/chefs/chauffeurs/housekeepers/mentors. To the tears of laughter and tears of sorrow. To the depth and breadth of life you’ve lived, and to the life you have created. I see you. You are honored. And I thank you. And I pray that you get the support you need, the love you want, and only grow in esteem in your home and in the world around you. Now. Here are some of my favorite songs about moms.

1. The Best Day (Taylor Swift)
2. I’ll Always Love My Mama (The Intruders)
3. When God Made You My Mother (Riley Roth)
4. The Perfect Fan (Backstreet Boys)
5. A Letter To My Mama (Vince Gill)
6. …and my personal favorite: Mamas (by Anne Wilson & Hillary Scott)

Headlines & Highlights

Let’s take a look at what is happening out there in the world that could have an impact on your local real estate market.

• Well folks it happened. Tariffs came, they went, some deals have been made, many haven’t. But the entire world has been watching (and reeling).
• US Home Builders begin to take hits as tariffs took effect and producers increased prices accordingly. Builders expect slower construction and rising costs.
• DR Horton reports disappointing spring numbers. Says consumer sentiment and affordability are main drivers, even as they increase incentives.
• Redfin finds that a significant number of Americans are delaying plans to make large purchases (like cars and homes) due to economic turbulence and tariffs.
• Developer sells 7 master-planned communities across DFW, including Furst Ranch right here in South Denton County.

Market Snapshot: The Big Picture

Inflation & The Fed

The Fed says inflation “remains somewhat elevated” and leaves rates untouched again. Says economic expansion and the labor market are still solid, but acknowledges that uncertainty is increasing around the broader economic outlook. President Trump puts pressure on Fed to lower rates, but Fed is unlikely to change them at its next meeting this week.

• The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Metric, PCE, improved and fell to 2.3% in March.
• Consumer Price Index also fell 0.4% to 2.4% in March.
• 10-Year Treasury Yields fell slightly to 4.25%.

The Consumer

Overall consumer financial well-being recovered a bit after reversing its downward trend, yet consumers sentiment and optimism continues to decline. All data below is for March.

• Unemployment remains low at 4.2%
• Personal savings rate fell to 3.9% and remains well below pre-pandemic levels.
• Consumer Sentiment continued its freefall to 57, with inflation expectations rising sharply again to 5.0%, the highest since 2022.
• Homeowner equity remains near record highs, largely driven by price increases.
• …and, subsequently, so does household net worth.

Mortgage Rates

Rates ticked higher in April, likely due to the flurry of tariff driven economic uncertainty and are predicted to stay in the 6’s at least through 2025. Rates for the week ending Apr 24:

• 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 6.81% (up from 6.65% in March)
• 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 5.94% (up from 5.89% in March)
• Predictions for 2025 and beyond
  • Fannie Mae: 30-year will drop to 6.50% at end of year, 6.30% in 2026
  • Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.50% at end of year, 6.40% in 2026
  • National Association of Realtors: Near 6% at end of year
  • Realtor.com: 6.2% at end of year
  • National Association of Home Builders: 6.53% at end of year, 6.11% in 2026
  • Wells Fargo: above 6% through 2026

Housing

The National Housing Affordability Index climbed to 102.2 in February, meaning that a family with the median income had more than enough income to qualify for a loan on a median-priced house. Existing home sales charted its slowest March Sales numbers since 2009.

• Homeownership decreased slightly in Q1 2025 continuing it’s decline since recent 2020 highs.
• Broader housing activity trends improved in February. New and existing home sales, as well as new construction starts, all rose in February.
• In March, existing home sale prices increased to $403,700, but new construction prices fell to a nearly equivalent price $403,600.
• Inventory of both new homes for sale and existing home inventory climbed in March.
• Months supply of new (8.3) homes stayed relatively flat, while months supply of existing (4) homes took a leg higher.
• Housing insecurity is still higher than it was this time last year.

Texas

Texas (the 8th largest economy in the world) is still going strong 🤠. The Texas housing market is largely following typical seasonal patterns, but with higher prices and less activity.

• Home sales in Texas climbed in a typical seasonal pattern in March, but is still lower than this time in the prior several years.
• March Median Sales Price bumped up to $339,990, and Months of Inventory increased to 4.84. Active listings climbed to 32,993 following typical seasonal patterns. However, inventory is still significantly elevated from previous years.
• New Single Family Home permits dropped in March as builders began to digest the new tariffs.
• March New Listings climbed to 45,004, which is over 10% higher than last year.
• Texas continues to experience a strong economy and hits some employment records in March. The Lone Star State also led the nation in job creation over the last 12 months!
• The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5% in 2025, reflecting a resilient labor market.
• The Texas economy, job growth, and income growth are all expected to outpace the United States’ in 2025.

Market Snapshot: South Denton County (76226, 75077, 75022, 75028)

Prices continue to creep up, and we’re seeing homes sit on the market for a bit longer than normal. South Denton County currently has a record number of homes on the market for as far back as the MLS Trends has data for (2003). Pending Sales dropped sharply to the lowest April number since 2011, proving that the tariff/economic uncertainty is weighing heavily on buyers and reduced the number of folks getting to the contract stage. Taking this number with the drop in Shows to Pending we can see that buyers were more decisive in April, further proving that less-than-serious buyers have been scared out of the market. The market is almost sitting in a balanced position but still slightly favors sellers.

The numbers for April*

*All data is from NTREIS. Median used for all calculations unless specified otherwise. I live, work, and play in South Denton County. The following insights are drawn from data from ONLY the above zip codes. What does that mean for you? Well, if you live in one of those zip codes, then this information will be much more precise and relevant than using general, county-level data.