LET'S GET IN TOUCH

Work With Me 

MOBILE CONTACT CARD

ADDRESS

2434 Lillian Miller Pkwy
Denton, TX 76205

SUBMIT A MESSAGE

LET'S GET IN TOUCH

Work With Me 

MOBILE CONTACT CARD

ADDRESS

2434 Lillian Miller Pkwy
Denton, TX 76205

SUBMIT A MESSAGE

November 2025 Market Report

By Kevin Tydlacka · November 5, 2025

In this article

Summary

  • Happy Thanksgiving!
  • President Trump deescalates the latest tariff drama with China.
  • The Denton County market favors buyers.
  • Denton County inventory fell for the third month in a row but remains near record highs.
  • Inflation and unemployment both rise again.
  • The Fed cuts rates for the second time this year but says a third cut this year is not guaranteed.
  • Mortgage rates continued to fall slowly in October.
  • The Texas economy is still showing strength.
  • Consumers rebounded a bit in October.
  • The federal government shutdown continues and is now the longest in history. This has impacted the availability of some data.

Thanksgiving and Another Rate Cut 🦃 📉

Happy Thanksgiving friends! I hope you have some good times with friends and family this month, give thanks, and eat your hearts out. The housing market is largely following seasonal patterns but still carrying more homes on the market than normal, continuing the buyers’ market we’ve been in. The Fed cut rates again, but the party was cut short as they indicated that another rate cut in December is nowhere near guaranteed. I want to note here at the top that the government shutdown has delayed or impacted the availability of some of the data I normally analyze and present here.

I’ve scrounged up a list of fun activities for the month, as well as some weird and interesting facts about Thanksgiving that I bet you didn’t know. Read on!

Before we get started, I want to say thank you for visiting my little corner of the internet! I am a native Texan, husband, dad, and former tech company CoFounder & CTO turned Real Estate Agent. I live and work in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and am passionate about resourcing my clients well (click here to hear my story). I hope you find this post and the rest of the resources on my website useful, and I would love to hear from you! Shoot me a text or email and say hey or get more hyperlocal insights, analysis, and news about the real estate market YOU are living in. Now, let’s get to it.

Local Happenings & Community Buzz

Upcoming good times in the DFW metroplex.

Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃

A nip is in the air, the leaves are changing color, the days are getting shorter, and we are just piling on the excuses to stay in, cozy up, spend time with those we love, and eat waaaaaay too much. I love it! Fall is one of my favorite times of the year, and love the feeling of everything settling in for (in the words of my wife) “a loooooong winter’s nap.” The pinnacle for me is Thanksgiving. Hands down. And here are some interesting things you might not know about Thanksgiving.

  1. 96% of people enjoy their leftovers. Tell that to your picky kiddos.
  2. The most popular Thanksgiving destination in the US? Orlando, FL.
  3. Minnesota raises more turkeys than any other state.
  4. If you’re a NASA astronaut in space, you don’t get the day off. Lame!
  5. The first Thanksgiving lasted THREE DAYS, probably included lobster, did not include pumpkin pie, and probably had more Native Americans than colonists.
  6. Black Friday is the busiest day of the year for plumbers…

Headlines & Highlights

Let’s take a look at what is happening out there in the world that could have an impact on your local real estate market.

  • The US & China deescalate their most recent tariff spat.
  • …and President Trump’s power to levy tariffs has made its way to the Supreme Court.
  • Huge master-planned community, Cole Ranch, expecting to begin home sales in 2027 in southwest Denton.
  • The federal government shutdown has become the longest in history. Here’s how it may be impacting the real estate market.
  • Home sale cancellations spike as buyers back out of deals with sellers playing hardball (primarily on home inspection/repair issues).
  • Home builder optimism rises but is still not great (except for the luxury market).

Market Snapshot: The Big Picture

Inflation & The Fed

The Fed cut rates again on October 29 for the second time this year. Chairman Powell cited growing risk in the weakening labor market that outweighed the need to continue fighting down inflation to their 2% target. Powell went on to warn that another cut at their next meeting in December is “…not a foregone conclusion.”

  • The Fed’s favorite inflation metric, PCE, rose to 2.7% in August.
  • The Consumer Price Index also ticked higher to 3.0% in September.
  • 10-Year Treasury Yields bounced off their recent mid-October lows after the Fed’s decision to end the month at 4.11%.

The Consumer

Consumer financial well-being had a healthy climb in October. Consumers plan on higher discretionary spending, even while non-discretionary spending climbs. Some metrics did not have updates due to the government shutdown.

  • Mortgage applications rose at the end of October in response to falling rates.
  • Unemployment remains low but has slowly climbed to 4.3% in August.
  • Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, with an increase of 3.7% from August last year.
  • Personal savings slips to 4.6% in August and remains below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Consumer Sentiment dropped a couple points to 53.6 in October, with inflation expectations dropping slightly to 4.7% in September.
  • Q2 2025 Homeowner equity recorded a new high, largely driven by price increases.
  • …and, subsequently, so does household net worth.

Mortgage Rates

The Fed cut their target rate another quarter point but signaled uncertainty around another rate cut in December. In response, mortgage rates actually rose a bit into the first few days of November. Rates for the week ending October 30:

Housing

The National Housing Affordability Index rose to 98.8 in July, meaning that a family with the median income doesn’t quite have enough income to qualify for a loan on a median-priced house. Overall housing conditions improved slightly at the end of summer, and the government shutdown has resulted in delayed/missed data for a number of the metrics I watch for the first month of fall.

  • Homeownership continued its post-2023 decline in Q2 2025.
  • Broader housing trends improved in July. Existing home purchases rose while new home purchases slipped. Construction of new homes rose.
  • The rate of forbearance on mortgages declined just a bit but remains elevated from last year.
  • In September, existing home sale prices fell to $415,200. New construction data for September is unavailable.
  • Inventory of new homes fell again in August, while existing home inventory recovered slightly in September.
  • Months supply of new (7.4) homes fell sharply in August, while months supply of existing (4.6) homes remained flat for the month of September.

Texas

The Lone Star State still has an economy to be proud of. The Texas housing market as a whole is experiencing higher than normal inventory, which is pushing prices down from their post-COVID highs.

  • Home sales in Texas fell in September, though not as sharply as they typically do.
  • September Median Sales Price also fell to $330,000, and Months of Inventory decreased to 5.48. Active listings dropped slightly to 153,154. Inventory is still significantly elevated from previous years but has leveled off, and the state is sitting in a market that favors buyers more than sellers.
  • New single-family home permits continued their 2025 decline in August.
  • October New Listings rose to 36,604, which is 7% higher than last year.
  • Texas continues to experience a strong economy and is named the top business climate in the US for the 3rd year in a row.

Market Snapshot: Your Local Market

Not much has changed for Denton County since September. There are still significantly more homes on the market than is normal, but the number is slowly falling from its July high. This is still being driven by higher than normal new listings that are not seeing a correspondingly larger pool of buyers. There just aren’t enough people home shopping to meet the current increase in supply, although the disparity is not as drastic as it was over the summer. Home prices are continuing their slow walk downward as sellers lower prices to get an edge over competing listings. Buyers in Denton County have a lot of options and a lot of power to negotiate with. With that being said, sellers are still seeing valuations within 10% of record highs. Of course, the trends vary by neighborhood, so it’s important to work with an agent who knows and can analyze the specific area you are buying or selling in. Continue reading for buyer/seller-specific thoughts and advice!

The numbers for October*

*All data is from NTREIS. Median used for all calculations unless specified otherwise. Select your county/zip/city to get the most detailed and relevant insights for your neighborhood, or give me a call to hear my analysis of your specific area!

What Does it All Mean?

For Sellers. We’re entering the slower season (November & December) for real estate sales in Denton County. Typically, fewer contracts are signed at the end of the year, and then they pick back up in January. Valuations are still only about 10% off their record highs, which is still pretty dang good. With inventory and rates coming down, it’s a good time to prepare your home for a post-holiday listing. If you have been wanting to sell but were waiting for a better market, I would prepare to list in early 2026. There is enough economic uncertainty that I’d want to catch valuations where they are now as a fresh wave of buyers (hopefully) enter the market if rates keep falling over the next couple months. With lots of homes on the market, you’ll still need standout marketing and a data-driven pricing strategy. That’s where I come in. If you are in a position where you think you might want to sell your home, give me a call and I’ll talk through it with you and help you make the best decision for you. If you’re just doing some research, sign up for my free Home Valuation to help you keep track of your investment.

For Buyers. It’s still a buyer’s market out there, folks. If you have been thinking about selling, then I’d recommend getting out there and touring some homes. No one has a crystal ball, but there is a chance that rates could break into the 5% range before the end of the year. Lots of homes are sitting on the market, giving you lots of options and lots of power to negotiate. I’d recommend starting your search and staying open to putting an offer in on something even through the holidays to beat the first of the year buyer wave. Exhausted sellers might be even more willing to give concessions just to get something done before the end of the year or holidays. You can check out the market and browse homes right on my website here. If you feel overwhelmed by all of it, then call a smart, data-informed, emotionally intelligent, capable agent who can find and negotiate the best possible deal for you. That would be <ahem> me, by the way.

At the end of the day, deciding to sell your house and/or buy a new one is a very personal decision, and one that should weigh many other factors besides the market conditions. If you want to talk through it with an expert, I’d love to be a free resource to you. I promise to prioritize YOUR interests and comfort and won’t pressure you. Losing your business is worth it to me if I gain your trust. So give me a call/text/email, and don’t forget to check out my free, beautiful Ultimate Home Seller & Buyer Guides!

Until next time,

Was This Helpful?

Please Click a Star and Leave a Review

It's the internet age and reviews are critical for every business. It only take you a minute but means the world to me! Let me know how I'm doing! Thank you ❤️

Join the Fun

Get   FREE   Market

Updates & News

By providing Kevin Tydlacka your contact information, you acknowledge and agree to our Privacy Policy and consent to receiving marketing communications from Kevin Tydlacka, including through automated calls, texts, and emails. This consent isn’t necessary for purchasing any products or services and you may opt out at any time. To opt out from texts, you can reply, ‘stop’ at any time. To opt out from emails, you can click on the unsubscribe link in the emails. Message frequency varies. Message and data rates may apply.