Local Happenings & Community Buzz

Upcoming good times in the DFW metroplex.

• Now – Nov 2: Hall’s pumpkin farm and corn maze! Wednesdays – Sundays.
• All Month: Do you like spooky? Denton has proclaimed itself the “Halloween Capital of the World,” and they make good on it with a whole host of events throughout the month.
• Oct 23: Enter your pup in Woof-O-Ween, a Halloween canine costume contest!
• Oct 25: You and your kids can show your creative side at Chalk the Park in Flower Mound.

Stay Well, My Friends 😌

October tends to be when you really start to feel the season change. The perk of energy, excitement for festivals, gatherings of friends and family, being outside again without melting, and so much more. I love it. But it also brings with it the promise of winter months, which can be long, isolating, and lonely. The importance of caring for yourself has been on my heart lately, and I wanted to share some resources & practices that have helped me grow and show up to the people and things that are most important to me at my best. Be warned—emotional/relational/personal development and self-care can be extremely challenging. Hard work and conviction are required, but I believe in you!

1. Prioritize People. We were created for connection to others. Cultivate a practice of giving your attention and presence to people over screens. Ideally in person or on a phone/video call.
2. You are what you eat. The simplest, most comprehensive advice I’ve found is from Michael Pollan: “Eat real food. Not too much. Mostly plants.”
3. Go for the heart. Practice emotional tolerance by just sitting with a hard feeling and allowing yourself to feel it for 30 minutes, but then moving on from it. No trying to fix what or who “caused” it. Practice journaling (check out expressive writing). Accept and grieve what you can’t control, and focus on the things you can. Learn what activities (exercise, breathing, etc.) help regulate your nervous system and emotions. Then regulate yourself to solve problems. Don’t solve problems to regulate yourself.
4. You have a body too. Exercise and stay active. Most people should prioritize cardio. I’ve always been athletic but hated working out. This changed when my reason for working out moved from the physical health to the mental health bucket.
5. Take baby steps and accept your limitations. Go slow. Start with one thing. Set goals and expectations for the process, not the end result (i.e., “I want to walk for 30 minutes 3 times per week” is a much better goal than “I want to lose 10 pounds”). Expect yourself to have bad days or weeks. If it feels overwhelming or too hard, then reduce what you’re doing until it feels manageable, but keep showing up.

Headlines & Highlights

Let’s take a look at what is happening out there in the world that could have an impact on your local real estate market.

• President Trump surprises the world with large tariffs targeting China in response to increased export controls over rare earth metals. Riskier markets dove sharply but have since recovered some, but not all, of their losses.
• Several DFW cities (McKinney, Frisco, Celina, Flower Mound, & Denton) welcome large new residential developments.
• More than 1/3 of DFW homes for sale have reduced their asking price.

Market Snapshot: The Big Picture

Inflation & The Fed

The Fed cut rates on September 17 for the first time this year. Chairman Powell cited growing pressure to adjust to a weakening labor market, even while inflation is still higher than their 2% target. They meet again on October 28-29, and financial markets are expecting another quarter point-drop to their target rate.

• The Fed’s favorite inflation metric, PCE, rose to 2.7% in August.
• The Consumer Price Index also ticked higher to 2.9% in August.
• 10-Year Treasury Yields ended the month of September slightly lower at 4.16%.

The Consumer

Consumer financial well-being took a leg lower, continuing its 2025 slow decline. Consumers are still feeling some financial pressure but are planning on spending more as they adjust to new higher price norms. The labor market continues to soften. Data below is for August unless otherwise noted.

• Mortgage applications and refinances both fell at the end of September.
• Unemployment remains low but has slowly climbed to 4.3% throughout 2025.
• Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, with an increase of 3.7% from last year.
• Personal savings slips to 4.6% in August and remains below pre-pandemic levels.
• Consumer Sentiment continues to hover above tariff lows at 55.1 for August, with inflation expectations rising to 4.8%.
• Q2 2025 Homeowner equity recorded a new high, largely driven by price increases.
• …and, subsequently, so does household net worth.

Mortgage Rates

Rates fell after the rate cut in September. Financial markets are predicting another quarter-point rate target cut at the Fed’s next meeting on October 28-29. Rates for the week ending September 25:

• 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 6.30% (down from 6.56% in August)
• 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 5.49% (down from 5.60% in August)
• Predictions for 2025 and beyond
  • Fannie Mae: 30-year will drop to 6.50% at end of year, 6.30% in 2026
  • Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.50% at end of year, 6.40% in 2026
  • National Association of Realtors: Near 6% at end of year
  • Realtor.com: 6.2% at end of year
  • National Association of Home Builders: 6.53% at end of year, 6.11% in 2026
  • Wells Fargo: above 6% through 2026

Housing

The National Housing Affordability Index rose to 98.8 in July, meaning that a family with the median income doesn’t quite have enough income to qualify for a loan on a median-priced house. Overall housing conditions improved slightly at the end of summer.

• Homeownership continued its post-2023 decline in Q2 2025.
• Broader housing trends improved in August. Existing home purchases rose while new home purchases slipped. Construction of new homes rose.
• The rate of forbearance on mortgages declined just a bit but remains elevated from last year.
• In August, existing home sale prices fell to $422,600, and new construction rose to $413,500.
• Inventory of new homes fell again in August, while existing home inventory ticked slightly lower.
• Months supply of new (7.4) homes fell sharply, while months supply of existing (4.6) homes remained flat for the month of August.

Texas

The Lone Star State set fewer employment records in August but is still in a strong economic position. Home buyers are still experiencing some favor in the market, and the market is largely following typical seasonal trends while carrying significantly more inventory than recent years.

• Home sales in Texas fell in a typical seasonal pattern in August.
• July Median Sales Price also fell to $335,000, and Months of Inventory decreased to 5.63. Active listings reversed course and dropped slightly to 156,468. Inventory is still significantly elevated from previous years but has leveled off, and the state is sitting in a market that favors buyers more than sellers.
• New single-family home permits continued their 2025 decline in August.
• August New Listings fell to 37,308 but were still 5% higher than last year.
• Texas continues to experience a strong economy.

Market Snapshot: Your Local Market

Denton County still has an unusually high number of homes for sale, but it has fallen for the second month in a row as buyers work to absorb them. Homes are sitting on the market for longer than normal and buyers are still discouraged by “high” interest rates and some economic uncertainty. Sales price and price per square foot are both weakening slightly, but still haven’t moved too far from where they settled at the end of 2022. While buyers are still enjoying a lot of power at the negotiating table, prices are still holding on to values that are still keeping many buyers on the sidelines. Of course, the trends vary by neighborhood, so it’s important to work with an agent who knows and can analyze the specific area you are buying or selling in. Continue reading for buyer/seller-specific thoughts and advice!

The numbers for September*