Local Happenings & Community Buzz

Upcoming good times in the DFW metroplex.

• Sep 11: Hooked on Crochet (and Knitting!) at the Flower Mound Public Library. I actually took up crocheting a couple years ago because I like to fidget. It’s relaxing and my kids love the little toys I make for them.
• If that’s not your speed them maybe you’d prefer a Ladies Bourbon Tasting at Sip + Savor? Also Sep 11.
• Sep 19: Family Movie Night at the Front Porch in Harvest. Bring 1 canned good per person.
• Sep 20: Rhythms at the River Walk & Duck Drop. Live music! Food! Charity rubber duck race! At the Flower Mound River Walk!
• Sep 27: Doggie Dive at Flower Mound Community Activity Center.

Hiking & Outdoor Adventures (Finally!) 🥾⛰️

My soul sings in the forest. Maybe because I was raised on 13 acres in the piney woods and was basically not allowed indoors if the sun was out. Whatever the reason, the mid-summer months in NTX are always tough on me until it cools off enough to get back out in nature for some good old hiking, trail walking, or backpacking/camping. And those days are here! Here are some great local and day/weekend trip spots that I personally love.

1. Arbor Hills Nature Preserve (Plano). A nice little spot for a jog, walk, picnic, or bike ride. Lots of trails, open and wooded areas, a bit of roll to the elevation, and a playground for the kiddos!
2. Cedar Ridge Preserve/Cedar Hill State Park (Cedar Hill). More hiking/biking, plus swimming and fishing. Check the Cedar Ridge Preserve Facebook page for closures before heading out.
3. Do some urban bouldering at Trinity Forest Adventure Park (Dallas) or natural rock climbing at Penitentiary Hollow (Mineral Wells).
4. The Dallas Arboretum and Botanical Garden (Dallas). A staple for my family for when we’re feeling less rugged.
5. Broken Bow (Oklahoma). North TX’s favorite weekend getaway. While it is significantly more crowded these days, especially during peak seasons, it is still a beautiful area with lots of activities, tons of lodging options, and only about 3 hours away.
6. Ouachita National Forest (Southwest, AR). Technically Broken Bow is also in the ONF, but to me the Southwest AR region is the closest “Kevin Certified Woodland Wonderland” to DFW, albeit at about a 5-hour drive. Stay in an Airbnb and enjoy ATV trails and some amazing day hikes, or do some primitive camping and backpacking on Eagle Rock Loop.

Headlines & Highlights

Let’s take a look at what is happening out there in the world that could have an impact on your local real estate market.

• Fort Worth welcomes a new semiconductor manufacturing facility.
• 5 out of the top 10 real estate markets are in North Texas, according to WalletHub.
• Buyers? Sellers? Nobody is happy with the current market.

Market Snapshot: The Big Picture

Inflation & The Fed

The Fed signals that there might be rate cuts coming as early as this month. They’re in a sticky spot as the Trump administration attempts to put political pressure on them to lower rates, the labor market is weakening, and inflation is still not under control.

• The Fed’s favorite inflation metric, PCE, held steady at 2.6% in July.
• The Consumer Price Index also held at 2.7% in July.
• 10-Year Treasury Yields fall to 4.23%.

The Consumer

Consumer financial well-being has mostly stabilized through the summer. While the spring tariff panic might be behind us, consumers remain somewhat distressed, uncertain, and pessimistic. Deloitte’s financial well-being index recovered slightly. The labor market is still hanging on but softening. Data below is for July unless otherwise noted.

• Mortgage delinquencies fall slightly in the second quarter of 2025.
• Unemployment remains low and stable at 4.2%.
• Wage growth continues to outpace inflation at 3.9% from last year.
• Personal savings holds steady at 4.4% in July but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
• Consumer Sentiment continues to hover above tariff lows at 58.2 for August, with inflation expectations falling but still high at 4.5%.
• Q1 2025 Homeowner equity remains near record highs, largely driven by price increases.
• …and, subsequently, so does household net worth.

Mortgage Rates

Rates fell just a bit in August but are predicted to stay in the 6s at least through 2025. All eyes are on this month’s FOMC meeting decision and whether they are going to lower or leave their rate target unchanged. Rates for the week ending August 28:

• 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 6.56% (down from 6.72% in July)
• 15-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average: 5.60% (down from 5.85% in July)
• Predictions for 2025 and beyond
  • Fannie Mae: 30-year will drop to 6.50% at end of year, 6.30% in 2026
  • Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.50% at end of year, 6.40% in 2026
  • National Association of Realtors: Near 6% at end of year
  • Realtor.com: 6.2% at end of year
  • National Association of Home Builders: 6.53% at end of year, 6.11% in 2026
  • Wells Fargo: above 6% through 2026

Housing

The National Housing Affordability Index fell to 94.4 in June, meaning that a family with the median income doesn’t quite have enough income to qualify for a loan on a median-priced house. Older homeowners are holding onto their paid-off homes, which is just one of many factors contributing to a serious lull in first-time homebuyer activity.

• Homeownership continued its post-2023 decline in Q2 2025.
• Broader housing trends were mixed in July. New home purchases rose while existing home purchases slipped. Construction of new homes rose.
• In July, existing home sale prices fell to $422,400, and new construction followed to $403,800.
• Inventory of new homes fell slightly in July, while existing home inventory ticked slightly higher.
• Months supply of new (9.2) homes remained flat, while months supply of existing (4.6) homes decreased slightly for the month of July.

Texas

Texas still shows a resilient and growing economy that is outpacing the nation as a whole in some key areas. The housing market in TX is becoming more favorable for buyers, but interest rates and greater economic uncertainty are holding any significant shifts at bay.

• Home sales in Texas fell in a typical seasonal pattern in July.
• July Median Sales Price also fell back to $340,000, and Months of Inventory increased to 5.76. Active listings continued its climb to 159,441. Inventory is still significantly elevated from previous years and climbing, and we’re moving into a buyer’s market at the state level.
• New single-family home permits bounced a bit in July.
• The cost of new homes over the last decade has fallen to almost identical prices as existing homes as builders build smaller houses.
• July New Listings fell to 40,154 but are still 7% higher than last year.
• “In June, sellers reduced prices by $5,000 or more in two-thirds of closed sales, with average concessions rising to $13,000—up from $10,000 YoY and $11,500 MoM.” – TRERC
• Texas continues to experience a strong economy, with a healthy increase in total exports through May & June.
• Texas also sets new records for Total Jobs and Texans Working…again.
• The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5% in 2025, reflecting a resilient labor market. In July, TX led the nation for the number of jobs added over the last 12 months.
• The Texas economy, job growth, and income growth are all expected to outpace the United States’ in 2025.

Market Snapshot: Your Local Market

The number of homes for sale in Denton County retreated slightly in August from record highs. I don’t see this as a new downward trend but merely the market taking a breather while it figures out where it wants to go next. Similarly, home values (best understood through price per sq ft in this case) are still holding within sight of record highs but starting to weaken. We’re seeing the market shift a bit more every month to favor buyers. It’s hard to call it a full-blown buyer’s market, but sellers are continually having to improve their pricing and increase incentives. This month’s biggest catalyst for change in either direction is going to be the Fed’s rate decision at September’s FOMC meeting. Continue reading for buyer/seller-specific thoughts and advice!

The numbers for August*